Psychology · Research Worlds
Your intuition can be predictably wrong
When we guess chances, a number we just saw can pull the guess toward it — even when it should not matter.
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Watch the 90-second visual story ↗What will you explore?
Tversky & Kahneman, 1974
Your intuition isn't merely noisy — it can be predictably wrong.
How does it work?
Watch a 90-second cinematic explanation, or explore a story that pauses so you can change its central mechanism. Inspect the source evidence, compare outcomes and resume the narration. This free Lesson Worlds adaptation needs no account or download; younger learners may want help from a parent or teacher.
Inside the cinematic story
A number enters the room.
An irrelevant number. A possible influence.
An estimate begins somewhere.
Useful shortcuts can have systematic limits.
Move the starting point.
A changed reference is not new evidence.
Take control: Compare two irrelevant starting points. Low anchor: 10 · High anchor: 65
Adjustment can stop too soon.
Moving away need not mean independence.
A pattern needs evidence.
A demonstration is not a diagnosis.
Where did your estimate begin?
Separate evidence from the starting point.
Discuss the evidence
Before starting, explain what you think this claim means: Your intuition isn't merely noisy — it can be predictably wrong. After exploring, choose one stage above and describe what its model helps you see. Separate what you observed in the adaptation from what the original researchers measured.
Read the original publication for its methods, evidence and limitations. Ask which part of the explanation the interactive model leaves out, and what additional evidence you would need to test the claim yourself.
An illustration of anchoring, not a new psychological experiment. Choices are not recorded as research data and cannot diagnose bias. The screen does not invent participant-response distributions.
Original research
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman · Science 185, 1124–1131 (27 September 1974) · 1974
Educational adaptation by Lesson Worlds. Not affiliated with the authors, Science or AAAS. The original publication may have its own access terms.